Sarkozy and de Villepin a winning team for the 2007 presidential?

French interior minister Nicolas Sarkozy is trying to embody today what Le Pen (Radical Nationalist and Anti-immigrant) was for the last years.

It is a very well known fact that Sarkozy intends to run for the post of French President against his own party's Dominique de Villepin (current French prime-minister). Sarkozy's comments in which he called immigrants "scum" put him in the extreme right-wing of his own party and probably closer to Le Pen's party, Le Front National, than to his own party mentor, current President Jacques Chirac.

Why is Sarkozy trying to please the extreme right electorate?

In the last presidential election the contenders for the second round were current President Jacques Chirac and Right-wing nationalist Le Pen. Le Pen ended the second turn with 20% of the votes cast in that election. By courting the right-wing electorate with this kind of language Sarkozy is trying to assemble enough votes from the right to effectively eliminate the "Le Pen" effect, by replacing it with the "Sarkozy effect".

This is how they expect it to work: If the President's and Sarkozy's own party (UMP) can maintain their votes (~20%) and assemble some votes from the right (mostly from Le Pen), they will have effectively eliminated Le Pen's chances of reaching the second round.

At the same time they will play de Villepin as a more humanist, left-leaning candidate to steal some votes from the left. If this works they will be able to have two of their candidates (de Villepin and Sarkozy) in the second round of the election and avoid a confrontation with the left, which is gaining votes in France.

For this to succeed they have to be able to portray de Villepin as a left-leaning humanist candidate and Sarkozy as a right-leaning candidate bordering on nationalist. Later, when the elections are closer (the election will be in 2007) they will of course have to fake a big fight between Sarkozy and de Villepin, which will probably enable de Villepin to leave the government at the same time as Chirac will promote Sarkozy to prime-minister. De Villepin will then start his own presidential campaign by saying: "I am left wing! Look at what the President did, he fired me and promoted a right-wing radical to prime-minister!".

This will give both de Villepin and Sarkozy an alibi to start their separate presidential campaigns and together try to get enough votes to prevent a left-wing candidate to reach the second turn.

All in all it is a good strategy that could easily work if the left in France is not capable of occupying the space that de Villepin will certainly try to fill.

Watch out for de Villepin or Sarkozy starting their own "party" for the presidential election!

Why did the violence start in Clichy sous Bois in October 27th?

RIGHTS-FRANCE: Where Immigrants are 'Scum': "The violence broke out after three children died of electrocution in a high-voltage electricity utility in Clichy sous Bois Oct. 27. Minister for the interior Nicolas Sarkozy first said the children were fleeing after a burglary, but the justice department later denied that any crime had taken place.

'The teenagers were fleeing apparently because they thought the police were following them, which was not the case,' a spokesperson at the justice department said.

Hundreds of residents of Clichy sous Bois demonstrated in protest. Later, youth gangs set automobiles, stores, and even school buildings on fire. They attacked the police with stones and at places also fired at them.

A statement by Sarkozy that people resorting to violence in the low-income districts surrounding Paris were 'racaille' meaning 'rabble' or 'scum', inflamed the already explosive situation. These areas are mostly inhabited by immigrants.

Sarkozy said he will clean these areas with a 'Kaercher' (high-pressure cleansing machinery mostly used in industry). "